Strategic multimodal transport models play a crucial role in assessing transportation schemes, policies, and developing transport strategies. However, these models have limitations when it comes to representing behavior change, particularly in mode choice, which can hinder potential future mode shifting and its impacts. This article highlights the importance of addressing behavior change, focusing on cycling, and introduces a potential solution - the Cycle Propensity Tool (CPT).

This document, conducted by the NTA (National Transport Authority) endorses the following thematics: 

Limitation of Strategic Transport Models: Current strategic transport models rely on calibrated parameters to represent observed mode shares for a base year. These parameters are then used to forecast mode shares in the future, assuming that people will behave similarly to how they did during the calibration period. However, this approach fails to capture difficult-to-quantify phenomena, such as unrepresented costs and attitudinal variations, which can significantly influence mode choice.

The Role of Cycling and the Need for Behavior Change: Cycling, as a sustainable mode of transport, holds the potential to alleviate congestion and reduce environmental impact. However, traditional transport models often fail to account for shifts in people's attitudes toward cycling. As a result, changes in travel costs, such as traffic congestion or improvements in public transport services, remain the sole drivers for mode shifts, neglecting the potential impact of changing preferences and behaviors.

Introducing the Cycle Propensity Tool (CPT): To address the limitations in strategic transport modeling related to cycling and behavior change, the Cycle Propensity Tool (CPT) has been developed. The CPT is designed to capture and represent behavior change towards cycling more accurately. It takes into account factors such as the market penetration of cargo bikes and e-bikes, which can significantly lower barriers to cycling and increase its appeal to a broader population.

The Impact of Cargo Bikes and E-Bikes: The growing market penetration of cargo bikes and e-bikes has the potential to revolutionize cycling. These modes of transportation address common barriers associated with cycling, such as the need to carry heavy loads or travel long distances. As a result, cycling becomes accessible to a wider demographic, leading to higher actual cycle mode shares than those predicted by traditional models calibrated without considering these factors.

Addressing Model Limitations: It is essential to recognize and address model limitations concerning behavior change in strategic transport modeling. By incorporating tools like the Cycle Propensity Tool (CPT), transportation planners can better anticipate shifts in mode choice and more accurately forecast the impacts of different transportation policies and strategies

You can read more in the following link: STAR2022_Loreille_Raha_v0.4.pdf (nationaltransport.ie)